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Welcome to Understanding Uncertainty

Submitted by david on Wed, 19/06/2013 - 9:53am

Welcome to the site that tries to make sense of chance, risk, luck, uncertainty and probability. Mathematics won't tell us what to do, but we think that understanding the numbers can help us deal with our own uncertainty and allow us to look critically at stories in the media.

Sex by Numbers, by David Spiegelhalter, is now available for purchase!

Details of reviews, interviews, (and errors) are all featured 雷霆加速器ios永久免费.

Do you have a coincidence story? David Spiegelhalter is collecting them over at http://cambridgecoincidences.org.

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Elsewhere on UnderstandingUncertainty:

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Verena Rieser

When my family plans a trip to the beach in Scotland, there is always a high chance of rain. So I always pack everything: from sunscreen to waterproofs. But would I have reached the same conclusion listening to the weather forecast on the radio or when checking the weather app on my phone? And would my husband have done the same?

Read more about Women listen and men look? How to best communicate risk to support decision making
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Submitted by david on Sun, 07/08/2016 - 11:35am

What words are appropriate when describing the unavoidable unpredictability of real life – what we might casually call ‘chance’?

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Submitted by david on Tue, 28/06/2016 - 2:06pm

In a careful study published last week, Socioeconomic position and the risk of brain tumour: a Swedish national population-based cohort study, the authors examined the association between the socio-economic status of men and women in Sweden with diagnosis of brain tumours over 18 years. One of the main findings is shown below.

Read more about The risks of Big Data – or why I am not worried about brain tumours.
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Submitted by david on Wed, 08/06/2016 - 3:45pm

I’ve had a lot of publicity over the last few days, but none of it was welcome. It arose from the story below from the Daily Telegraph of June 6 with the headline “网易UU网游加速器——玩出超快感，外服加速72小时免费:网易UU加速器，采用网易自主研发极速引擎,顶级IDC集群，全线高端刀片服务器！为网游用户解决延迟、掉线、卡机等问题，让你游戏更爽快！国服加速永久免费！外服加速72小时免费试用。海外直连专线，外服游戏加速效果业界顶尖！支持加速绝地求生、H1Z1、GTA5、CSGO，伍及LOL英雄联盟、DNF地下城 …”

Read more about The risks of trying to be funny
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The importance of what you don’t see

Submitted by david on Sun, 22/05/2016 - 11:29am

Remember all those autism stories over the last few weeks? You don’t? There’s a reason for that.

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Medicine, poison, poison, poison, ……

Submitted by david on Sat, 09/01/2016 - 11:55am

Yesterday the Chief Medical Officer announced new guidelines for alcohol consumption. The Summary says,

The proposed guidelines and the expert group report that underpins them, have been developed on the basis of the following principles:

Read more about Medicine, poison, poison, poison, ……
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Submitted by david on Sat, 21/11/2015 - 4:09am

On Thursday November 19th the printed version of the Guardian had the headline “老王加速器最新版下载【2021.4.1已更新V2.2.12】VPN免费 ...:2021-10-3 · “老挝加速器ios”是一款非常实用的游戏加速器软件。法老加速器支持主要游戏的加速，包括荣耀国服，和平精英国际服务，冒险岛M国际服务等。尽管该软件是完全免费的，但连接非常稳定且速度非常快，不会出现卡顿，低延迟和流畅的外部游戏。“ [online version here]. But it was not only Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt who gave a misleading statement – the Guardian also made a serious error about statistics.

Read more about Jeremy Hunt, the Guardian, and the importance of getting the stats right
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HRT, breast cancer, and the framing of risks

Submitted by david on Sat, 14/11/2015 - 11:22am

The way that risks are 'framed' can make a big impression on their apparent magnitude. The controversy following the recent report by NICE on hormone replacement therapy (HRT) provides a fine example.

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Is it fair that a single bad outcome should label a surgeon as an outlier?

Submitted by david on Sat, 17/10/2015 - 12:16pm

Surgeons are increasingly subject to statistical monitoring, and named results may be made publicly available. But consider a surgeon in a low-risk specialty who has had a successful and blameless career, until a combination of circumstances, possibly beyond their control, contribute to a single patient dying. They then find they are officially labeled as an ‘outlier’ and subject to formal investigation, all because of a purely statistical criterion. Is this fair?

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